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Weekly MarketWise
View on website | Download pdf | November 30, 2007

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Market Recap

Early morning natural gas futures prices are up $0.058/MMBtu (January 2008 is trading at $7.510/MMBtu).
Early morning crude oil futures prices are down $1.69/Bbl (January 2008 is trading at $89.32/barrel).

My opinion:
In Thursday's session the January 2008 NYMEX light sweet crude contract failed to hold on to the big gains of its early morning rally and ended the day up only 39 cents to close at $91.01 per barrel. Earlier in the day, the January contract was all the way up to $95.17.

Colder weather is forecast to move into the Northeast for next week, but that news was not enough to overcome storage levels that continue to sit above last year's levels.

Bob Cables, Market Intelligence, Direct Energy

 
NYMEX Settlement Prices NOAA National Weather Map


source: New York Mercantile Exchange

The January 2008 NYMEX gas contract started its prompt-month run on a quiet note, closing down 3.4 cents on the day. The EIA reported a storage withdrawal of 12 Bcf for the week ending Nov 23, keeping storage above last year's level.

NOAA National Weather Map
source: NOAA

The 10-day forecast has lots of swings as Columbus sees a high of 52 on Sunday but only the mid 30s by mid-week. Boston gets a week that is close to 25% colder than normal with highs mostly in the low 30s, while Baltimore will be 15% colder than normal with highs in the low to mid-40s.

 

Storage Storage Summary
The net change in storage for the week of November 23 was a withdrawal of 12 Bcf. Working gas in storage of 3,528 Bcf is 106 Bcf (3.1%) above the level for the same week last year. Storage is 301 Bcf (9.3%) above the 5-year average.
source: EIA
Storage Summary
Working Gas in Storage vs. Five Year RangeCrude Oil Comparison
Gas Storage vs 5 Year Range
source: Form EIA912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report" The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year ago weekly periods.
Crude Oil Comparison
source: EIA

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2002 through 2006.


Note: The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price, in dollars per barrel, is converted to $/MMBtu using a conversion factor of 5.80 MMBtu per barrel. The dates marked by vertical lines are the NYMEX near-month contract settlement dates. Source: Natural gas prices, NGI's daily gas price index (intelligencepress.com). WTI price Reuters News and Service utility (reuters.com).

 

Electricity: Average Retail Price Nation's Electric Power By Energy Source

Consumption. Cooling degree-days this summer were 12 percent higher than normal (U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gif) and slightly higher than last summer. Summer residential electricity consumption this year was 1.5 percent higher than it was in the summer of 2006. For the entire year of 2007, total consumption is expected to grow about 2.4 percent, primarily due to a surge in electricity consumption in the first quarter

U.S. Total Electricity Consumption
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gif.) Growth in 2008 is expected to slow to 0.7 percent due to an assumed return to near-normal summer temperatures and slightly slower growth in economic activity.

source: EIA

U.S. residential electricity prices are expected to grow by 2.2 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2008, much lower than the growth rates experienced during 2006 (U.S. Residential Electricity Prices http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gif)

Most of this increase is a result of increases in the fuel costs faced by electric power generators. Industrial electricity prices are expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2007 and by 1.7 percent in 2008.

source: EIA


*The views and opinions of the author of this statement are those of the author and do not necessarily state or reflect those of Direct Energy. The information provided in this section may represent opinion or judgment and is for informational purposes only. Direct Energy does not warrant the accuracy, correctness, reliability, comprehensiveness, or currency of the information provided by the author.

This communication is for informational purposes only. All information is provided "as is" and not intended for trading purposes or advice. Direct Energy makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the quality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information provided in this newsletter. Further, Direct Energy is not liable for any informational errors or incompleteness or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.


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